Trade rag Hits is projecting a No. 1 debut for Carrie Underwood’s third album Play On, which came out yesterday. The magazine is claiming that between 300,000 and 350,000 copies of Play On will be moved during the record’s first week on store shelves—a total that would make the album one of the stronger-debuting releases of 2009. Which is, I have to say, kind of strange, given something I noticed while shopping for sundries last night!


I always like using my trips to the local Target as excuses to check out the music section—it’s one of two places to buy CDs in the attached mall’s environs (the other: Hot Topic), and it’s fun to get a bead on what may or may not be selling, as well as what may (or may not!) be in stock. Last night one display at the end of a row in particular made me do a double-take, as it had a couple of copies of Weezer’s Raditude (only $9.99!), a big hole where the Glee tie-in CDs were supposed to be, and a lot of copies of Play On. Like, two rows of the endcap, as opposed to a single shelf for the Weezer record. (I wish I’d taken a picture)


Now this could all be due to the fact that I live in the decadent Northeast, where people want to make Snuggie jokes and sing along with glee-club types more than they want to honor a Grand Ole Opry member, and Target’s one-size-fits-all merchandising plan just didn’t work out when it came to this particular album. Maybe it’s merely a sign that 350,000 isn’t that big of a number when you factor in how many people there are in this country. Maybe Target’s buyers just overshot a tad, given that Underwood’s last release, Carnival Ride, moved 528,000 units in its first week on shelves a couple of years back.


Or could the more casual pop-country fans out there have already moved on to Taylor Swift? I don’t think I’m wrong in noting that the buzz around this record has been fairly muted, despite the “Before He Cheats”-channeling first single “Cowboy Casanova” and Underwood getting the returning-hero treatment in USA Today. And it probably doesn’t hurt to note that there were no copies of the Fearless reissue anywhere to be seen. Hm!


CARRIE’S ON: UNDERWOOD OVER THE TOP [Hits]
Earlier: Jay-Z’s First-Week Sales: Not Quite Eminem-Level, But Not Bad By Any Stretch

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